For Atlantis Akatemia, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Atlantis Akatemia conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/07
Away
34 PEPO
1:3
+6
13/07
Away
26 MYPA
1:2
+25
08/07
Home
27 PPJ
3:2
+50
03/07
Away
12 Futura
1:1
+11
28/06
Home
36 Kiffen
2:0
+94
13/06
Away
24 JaPS/47
3:0
+109
07/06
Home
27 NJS
1:3
+3
30/05
Away
41 Reipas Lahti
0:2
+5
Similarly, for GrIFK, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Home
41 Reipas Lahti
0:0
+42
13/07
Away
27 NJS
1:1
+32
10/07
Away
24 JaPS/47
2:4
+4
07/07
Home
12 Futura
3:1
+36
03/07
Home
27 PPJ
0:3
+2
19/06
Away
34 PEPO
1:0
+61
08/06
Home
36 Kiffen
3:1
+85
31/05
Away
26 MYPA
1:1
+24
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 304 points to the home team and 286 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Atlantis Akatemia) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 49.18% of victories for the team Atlantis Akatemia occurred in home matches. For the team GrIFK this indicator is 52.38%. On average, this equates to 50.78%, suggesting a slight advantage for Atlantis Akatemia all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Atlantis Akatemia
Atlantis Akatemia 49.18%
GrIFK
GrIFK 52.38%
Average
Average 50.78%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 50.78% of the home team's points and 49.22% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Atlantis Akatemia with an advantage of 155 points against 141. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.33% to 47.67%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.31% with a coefficient of 4.29. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.86, and for the away team's victory it is 4.39. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 70.31%, and the away team's victory - 29.69%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of GrIFK's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 13.1%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.39, while in reality, it should be 2.74.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.86
4.29
4.39
Our calculation
2.49
4.29
2.74
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
4.39
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
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2024 July
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ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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