For Atlanta United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Atlanta United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
15/09
Home
24 Nashville
0:2
+3
01/09
Away
29 Charlotte FC
1:0
+73
25/08
Away
39 Los Angeles Galaxy
0:2
+8
21/07
Home
42 Columbus Crew
2:1
+44
18/07
Home
34 New York City
2:2
+20
14/07
Away
21 Montreal
0:1
+20
07/07
Away
38 Real Salt Lake
2:5
+3
04/07
Away
24 New England Revolution
1:2
+21
Similarly, for Inter Miami, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
15/09
Home
20 Philadelphia Union
3:1
+52
01/09
Away
21 Chicago Fire
4:1
+132
25/08
Home
42 FC Cincinnati
2:0
+106
21/07
Home
21 Chicago Fire
2:1
+31
18/07
Home
24 Toronto FC
3:1
+50
07/07
Away
42 FC Cincinnati
1:6
+2
04/07
Away
29 Charlotte FC
2:1
+55
30/06
Away
24 Nashville
2:1
+41
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 191 points to the home team and 469 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Atlanta United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 65.46% of victories for the team Atlanta United occurred in home matches. For the team Inter Miami this indicator is 60.66%. On average, this equates to 63.06%, suggesting a slight advantage for Atlanta United all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Atlanta United
Atlanta United 65.46%
Inter Miami
Inter Miami 60.66%
Average
Average 63.06%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 63.06% of the home team's points and 36.94% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Inter Miami with an advantage of 173 points against 120. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59% to 41%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.42% with a coefficient of 4.27. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.33, and for the away team's victory it is 2.97. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 56.06%, and the away team's victory - 43.94%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Inter Miami's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 14.76%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.97, while in reality, it should be 2.21.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.33
4.27
2.97
Our calculation
3.19
4.27
2.21
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
2.97
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
USA. MLS
QUANTITY 213
ROI +10.11%
EARNINGS +$2154
2024 September
QUANTITY 674
ROI +3.01%
EARNINGS +$2027
Romania. Liga I
Republic of Ireland. Premier Division
2024 © betzax.com