For Asane, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Asane conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
32 Lyn
1:3
+6
23/06
Home
41 Moss
1:4
+3
16/06
Away
36 Kongsvinger
5:0
+227
09/06
Away
38 Bryne
0:1
+40
05/06
Away
37 Egersund
0:1
+32
01/06
Home
15 Sandnes Ulf
1:0
+19
27/05
Away
15 Aalesund
1:4
+1
22/05
Home
44 Valerenga
1:5
+2
Similarly, for Raufoss, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
23/07
Home
29 Levanger
0:3
+3
20/07
Home
35 Stabaek
0:0
+34
23/06
Home
18 Start
2:1
+24
16/06
Away
29 Ranheim
0:1
+25
01/06
Away
37 Egersund
2:1
+57
27/05
Home
32 Lyn
1:0
+46
22/05
Away
33 Sogndal
1:1
+30
16/05
Home
41 Moss
0:2
+4
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 330 points to the home team and 223 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Asane) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 66.1% of victories for the team Asane occurred in home matches. For the team Raufoss this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 58.05%, suggesting a slight advantage for Asane all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Asane
Asane 66.1%
Raufoss
Raufoss 50%
Average
Average 58.05%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.05% of the home team's points and 41.95% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Asane with an advantage of 192 points against 94. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 67.19% to 32.81%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.84% with a coefficient of 3.87. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.35, and for the away team's victory it is 3.16. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 57.36%, and the away team's victory - 42.64%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Asane's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.07%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.35, while in reality, it should be 2.01.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.35
3.87
3.16
Our calculation
2.01
3.87
4.11
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.35
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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