For Argentino de Quilmes, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Argentino de Quilmes conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
22/07
Away
32 Fenix
2:1
+64
15/07
Home
40 Midland
0:1
+28
09/07
Away
43 Los Andes
1:1
+59
05/07
Home
14 Canuelas
0:0
+11
01/07
Away
27 Deportivo Laferrere
1:1
+30
24/06
Home
24 Deportivo Merlo
0:0
+19
17/06
Home
18 Sacachispas
2:0
+36
09/06
Away
33 Excursionistas
3:2
+55
Similarly, for Villa Dalmine, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
22/07
Home
28 Deportivo UAI Urquiza
1:0
+37
16/07
Away
32 Fenix
0:1
+32
09/07
Home
53 Colegiales
0:1
+34
06/07
Away
40 Midland
0:1
+42
30/06
Home
32 Dock Sud
0:0
+21
23/06
Away
43 Los Andes
0:2
+8
15/06
Home
27 Flandria
1:1
+16
08/06
Away
14 Canuelas
1:0
+26
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 303 points to the home team and 214 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Argentino de Quilmes) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 59.62% of victories for the team Argentino de Quilmes occurred in home matches. For the team Villa Dalmine this indicator is 70.91%. On average, this equates to 65.26%, suggesting a slight advantage for Argentino de Quilmes all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Argentino de Quilmes
Argentino de Quilmes 59.62%
Villa Dalmine
Villa Dalmine 70.91%
Average
Average 65.26%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65.26% of the home team's points and 34.74% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Argentino de Quilmes with an advantage of 198 points against 74. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.66% to 27.34%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.78% with a coefficient of 3.6. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.78, and for the away team's victory it is 6.24. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 77.81%, and the away team's victory - 22.19%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Villa Dalmine's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.23%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 6.24, while in reality, it should be 5.06.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.78
3.6
6.24
Our calculation
1.91
3.6
5.06
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
6.24
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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