For Weston Workers, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Weston Workers conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Home
39 Charlestown Azzurri
0:1
+37
14/07
Home
16 New Lambton
3:0
+89
07/07
Home
30 Valentine Phoenix
1:0
+57
26/06
Away
56 Broadmeadow Magic
0:5
+3
16/06
Home
51 Lambton Jaffas
1:2
+43
25/05
Away
28 Maitland
1:0
+39
19/05
Home
46 Edgeworth Eagles
0:2
+6
12/05
Home
32 Cooks Hill United
1:2
+21
Similarly, for Adamstown Rosebud, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
13/07
Home
46 Edgeworth Eagles
0:4
+3
06/07
Away
32 Cooks Hill United
0:6
+1
03/07
Away
16 New Lambton
1:2
+12
29/06
Home
5 Lake Macquarie City
1:1
+5
22/06
Home
28 Maitland
2:7
+1
18/06
Away
38 Newcastle Olympic
2:1
+57
12/06
Away
5 Lake Macquarie City
3:1
+12
05/06
Away
38 Newcastle Olympic
0:3
+2
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 294 points to the home team and 95 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Weston Workers) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 47.76% of victories for the team Weston Workers occurred in home matches. For the team Adamstown Rosebud this indicator is 46.27%. On average, this equates to 47.02%, suggesting a slight advantage for Weston Workers all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Weston Workers
Weston Workers 47.76%
Adamstown Rosebud
Adamstown Rosebud 46.27%
Average
Average 47.02%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 47.02% of the home team's points and 52.99% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Weston Workers with an advantage of 138 points against 51. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 73.27% to 26.73%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 10.38% with a coefficient of 9.63. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.19, and for the away team's victory it is 17.16. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 93.5%, and the away team's victory - 6.5%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Adamstown Rosebud's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 20.23%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 17.16, while in reality, it should be 4.17.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.19
9.63
17.16
Our calculation
1.52
9.63
4.17
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
17.16
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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