For Orlando City, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Orlando City conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
15/09
Home
24 New England Revolution
3:0
+104
01/09
Home
24 Nashville
3:0
+104
25/08
Away
19 Sporting Kansas City
0:3
+2
21/07
Home
34 New York City
1:1
+26
18/07
Away
24 Nashville
3:0
+130
14/07
Away
24 New England Revolution
3:1
+77
07/07
Home
24 D.C. United
5:0
+93
04/07
Away
24 Toronto FC
2:1
+41
Similarly, for Charlotte FC, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
15/09
Away
21 Montreal
1:2
+26
01/09
Home
21 Atlanta United
0:1
+12
25/08
Home
30 New York Red Bulls
1:1
+20
21/07
Away
26 Austin FC
2:2
+36
18/07
Away
42 Columbus Crew
1:1
+56
14/07
Away
42 FC Cincinnati
3:1
+137
04/07
Home
52 Inter Miami
1:2
+25
30/06
Away
34 Houston Dynamo
0:1
+31
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 575 points to the home team and 343 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Orlando City) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 52.63% of victories for the team Orlando City occurred in home matches. For the team Charlotte FC this indicator is 69.09%. On average, this equates to 60.86%, suggesting a slight advantage for Orlando City all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Orlando City
Orlando City 52.63%
Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC 69.09%
Average
Average 60.86%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.86% of the home team's points and 39.14% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Orlando City with an advantage of 350 points against 134. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.31% to 27.69%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.04% with a coefficient of 4.16. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.81, and for the away team's victory it is 4.8. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 72.57%, and the away team's victory - 27.43%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Charlotte FC's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 0.04%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.8, while in reality, it should be 4.75.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.81
4.16
4.8
Our calculation
1.82
4.16
4.75
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.8
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 664
ROI +4.06%
EARNINGS +$2698
USA. MLS
QUANTITY 213
ROI +10.11%
EARNINGS +$2154
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Sweden. Allsvenskan
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