For Nashville, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Nashville conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
15/09
Away
21 Atlanta United
2:0
+92
01/09
Away
34 Orlando City
0:3
+3
25/08
Home
26 Austin FC
0:2
+3
21/07
Away
20 Philadelphia Union
0:3
+2
18/07
Home
34 Orlando City
0:3
+2
14/07
Away
24 D.C. United
1:2
+22
08/07
Away
34 Portland Timbers
1:4
+3
04/07
Away
42 Columbus Crew
0:2
+7
Similarly, for Chicago Fire, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
15/09
Home
30 New York Red Bulls
2:1
+42
08/09
Home
24 D.C. United
1:2
+19
01/09
Home
52 Inter Miami
1:4
+3
25/08
Away
34 New York City
2:2
+45
21/07
Away
52 Inter Miami
1:2
+46
18/07
Away
42 FC Cincinnati
1:0
+71
14/07
Home
34 New York City
0:0
+21
08/07
Away
15 San Jose Earthquakes
0:1
+13
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 134 points to the home team and 261 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Nashville) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 63.16% of victories for the team Nashville occurred in home matches. For the team Chicago Fire this indicator is 60.35%. On average, this equates to 61.75%, suggesting a slight advantage for Nashville all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Nashville
Nashville 63.16%
Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire 60.35%
Average
Average 61.75%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.75% of the home team's points and 38.25% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Chicago Fire with an advantage of 100 points against 83. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.65% to 45.35%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.1% with a coefficient of 4.15. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.86, and for the away team's victory it is 4.53. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 70.96%, and the away team's victory - 29.04%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Chicago Fire's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 25.24%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.53, while in reality, it should be 2.41.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.86
4.15
4.53
Our calculation
2.9
4.15
2.41
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.53
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 664
ROI +4.06%
EARNINGS +$2698
USA. MLS
QUANTITY 213
ROI +10.11%
EARNINGS +$2154
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