For West Adelaide, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team West Adelaide conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
46 Playford City Patriots
1:2
+46
13/07
Home
29 Sturt Lions
2:1
+46
04/07
Home
38 Adelaide Blue Eagles
1:1
+34
22/06
Home
36 Cumberland United
1:2
+25
15/06
Home
32 Adelaide Cobras
3:0
+136
08/06
Home
17 Western Strikers
2:1
+22
01/06
Home
33 Salisbury United
1:2
+20
25/05
Home
42 West Torrens Birkalla
0:5
+1
Similarly, for Fulham United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
26 Vipers
0:1
+18
13/07
Home
15 Adelaide Victory
3:0
+65
29/06
Away
46 Playford City Patriots
0:0
+53
22/06
Home
29 Sturt Lions
3:0
+119
15/06
Away
38 Adelaide Blue Eagles
0:4
+2
08/06
Home
36 Cumberland United
0:1
+23
01/06
Away
32 Adelaide Cobras
0:2
+4
25/05
Home
17 Western Strikers
3:2
+21
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 330 points to the home team and 305 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (West Adelaide) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55% of victories for the team West Adelaide occurred in home matches. For the team Fulham United this indicator is 54.55%. On average, this equates to 54.77%, suggesting a slight advantage for West Adelaide all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
West Adelaide
West Adelaide 55%
Fulham United
Fulham United 54.55%
Average
Average 54.77%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.77% of the home team's points and 45.23% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is West Adelaide with an advantage of 181 points against 138. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 56.74% to 43.26%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.38% with a coefficient of 3.94. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.69, and for the away team's victory it is 2.67. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 49.79%, and the away team's victory - 50.21%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of West Adelaide's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.95%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.69, while in reality, it should be 2.36.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.69
3.94
2.67
Our calculation
2.36
3.94
3.1
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.69
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Australia. South Australia. State League 1
QUANTITY 174
ROI +49.95%
EARNINGS +$8691
USA. MLS
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