For Vipers, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Vipers conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
31 Fulham United
1:0
+72
13/07
Home
46 Playford City Patriots
1:6
+2
29/06
Away
29 Sturt Lions
2:4
+6
22/06
Home
38 Adelaide Blue Eagles
2:0
+76
15/06
Away
36 Cumberland United
0:1
+36
08/06
Home
32 Adelaide Cobras
1:1
+23
01/06
Away
17 Western Strikers
1:2
+15
25/05
Home
33 Salisbury United
3:2
+33
Similarly, for Adelaide Victory, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
32 Adelaide Cobras
0:3
+3
13/07
Away
31 Fulham United
0:3
+3
07/07
Home
17 Western Strikers
1:0
+24
22/06
Away
46 Playford City Patriots
0:1
+43
15/06
Home
33 Salisbury United
2:4
+4
08/06
Away
29 Sturt Lions
1:3
+4
30/05
Away
42 West Torrens Birkalla
1:3
+6
25/05
Home
38 Adelaide Blue Eagles
2:1
+43
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 264 points to the home team and 129 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Vipers) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 68.25% of victories for the team Vipers occurred in home matches. For the team Adelaide Victory this indicator is 57.9%. On average, this equates to 63.08%, suggesting a slight advantage for Vipers all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Vipers
Vipers 68.25%
Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Victory 57.9%
Average
Average 63.08%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 63.08% of the home team's points and 36.93% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Vipers with an advantage of 166 points against 48. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 77.76% to 22.24%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.53% with a coefficient of 4.25. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.3, and for the away team's victory it is 3.03. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 56.85%, and the away team's victory - 43.15%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Vipers's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 14.89%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.3, while in reality, it should be 1.68.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.3
4.25
3.03
Our calculation
1.68
4.25
5.88
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.3
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Australia. South Australia. State League 1
QUANTITY 174
ROI +49.95%
EARNINGS +$8691
USA. MLS
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