For Toluca, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Toluca conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
15 Queretaro
1:0
+35
06/10
Home
41 UNAM
1:1
+27
29/09
Home
31 Atlas
4:1
+106
23/09
Away
15 Santos Laguna
0:2
+3
18/09
Away
17 Pachuca
2:2
+19
15/09
Home
39 Tijuana
4:0
+105
01/09
Away
38 Monterrey
2:1
+65
25/08
Home
33 Atletico San Luis
2:1
+31
Similarly, for Puebla, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
56 Cruz Azul
1:2
+45
06/10
Away
42 Tigres
0:1
+46
28/09
Home
18 Juarez
2:3
+12
21/09
Home
17 Pachuca
2:3
+12
18/09
Away
41 UNAM
0:1
+39
14/09
Home
15 Queretaro
2:1
+21
31/08
Away
18 Mazatlan
1:1
+18
25/08
Away
31 America
1:0
+49
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 393 points to the home team and 242 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Toluca) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 68.42% of victories for the team Toluca occurred in home matches. For the team Puebla this indicator is 55.39%. On average, this equates to 61.9%, suggesting a slight advantage for Toluca all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Toluca
Toluca 68.42%
Puebla
Puebla 55.39%
Average
Average 61.9%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.9% of the home team's points and 38.1% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Toluca with an advantage of 243 points against 92. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.5% to 27.5%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 18.15% with a coefficient of 5.51. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.44, and for the away team's victory it is 7.92. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 84.57%, and the away team's victory - 15.43%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Puebla's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 12.07%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 7.92, while in reality, it should be 4.44.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.44
5.51
7.92
Our calculation
1.69
5.51
4.44
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
7.92
2024 October
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Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
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2024 September
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Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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