For Degerfors, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Degerfors conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
06/10
Away
22 Sundsvall
2:1
+53
28/09
Home
29 Trelleborgs
2:0
+73
23/09
Away
38 Sandviken
1:0
+83
19/09
Home
23 Gefle
1:0
+29
14/09
Away
24 Utsiktens
3:0
+132
31/08
Home
26 Ostersunds
2:0
+47
26/08
Away
34 Orgryte
3:1
+99
18/08
Home
28 Brage
1:1
+16
Similarly, for Orebro, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
05/10
Away
30 Varbergs
1:1
+41
28/09
Home
30 Landskrona
1:0
+39
23/09
Away
23 Oddevold
0:0
+32
18/09
Home
38 Sandviken
1:0
+45
13/09
Away
29 Trelleborgs
1:2
+28
31/08
Home
22 Sundsvall
0:0
+13
27/08
Away
24 Utsiktens
2:3
+20
17/08
Home
23 Gefle
4:1
+61
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 531 points to the home team and 280 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Degerfors) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.71% of victories for the team Degerfors occurred in home matches. For the team Orebro this indicator is 71.43%. On average, this equates to 67.07%, suggesting a slight advantage for Degerfors all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Degerfors
Degerfors 62.71%
Orebro
Orebro 71.43%
Average
Average 67.07%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 67.07% of the home team's points and 32.93% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Degerfors with an advantage of 356 points against 92. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 79.42% to 20.58%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.1% with a coefficient of 4.15. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.78, and for the away team's victory it is 5.08. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 74.03%, and the away team's victory - 25.97%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Degerfors's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.01%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.78, while in reality, it should be 1.66.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.78
4.15
5.08
Our calculation
1.66
4.15
6.4
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
1.78
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
2024 September
QUANTITY 1553
ROI +1.18%
EARNINGS +$1831
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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