For Tigre Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Tigre Reserves conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
15/10
Home
43 Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves
0:3
+3
10/10
Away
41 Newell's Old Boys Reserves
0:0
+52
02/10
Home
28 Talleres de Cordoba Reserves
3:1
+66
24/09
Away
32 Lanus Reserves
0:1
+32
17/09
Home
30 Defensa y Justicia Reserves
2:1
+33
06/09
Away
41 Velez Sarsfield Reserves
0:5
+2
29/08
Away
25 Godoy Cruz Reserves
1:1
+28
22/08
Home
19 Atletico Platense Reserves
2:3
+10
Similarly, for Sarmiento Junin Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
15/10
Home
19 Atletico Platense Reserves
0:1
+15
10/10
Away
43 Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves
0:0
+60
03/10
Home
20 Central Cordoba Reserves
2:0
+47
26/09
Away
41 Newell's Old Boys Reserves
0:2
+6
18/09
Home
29 Union de Santa Fe Reserves
1:1
+21
06/09
Away
11 Barracas Central Reserves
0:0
+12
28/08
Away
28 Talleres de Cordoba Reserves
0:2
+4
22/08
Home
41 Boca Juniors Reserves
0:1
+21
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 226 points to the home team and 187 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Tigre Reserves) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 65% of victories for the team Tigre Reserves occurred in home matches. For the team Sarmiento Junin Reserves this indicator is 59.26%. On average, this equates to 62.13%, suggesting a slight advantage for Tigre Reserves all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Tigre Reserves
Tigre Reserves 65%
Sarmiento Junin Reserves
Sarmiento Junin Reserves 59.26%
Average
Average 62.13%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 62.13% of the home team's points and 37.87% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Tigre Reserves with an advantage of 140 points against 71. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 66.46% to 33.54%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.95% with a coefficient of 3.71. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.84, and for the away team's victory it is 5.33. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 74.3%, and the away team's victory - 25.7%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sarmiento Junin Reserves's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.88%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.33, while in reality, it should be 4.08.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.84
3.71
5.33
Our calculation
2.06
3.71
4.08
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
5.33
2024 October
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Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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