For Talleres de Cordoba Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Talleres de Cordoba Reserves conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
16/10
Away
26 Huracan Reserves
2:2
+32
10/10
Home
27 Independiente Avellaneda Reserves
0:0
+27
02/10
Away
24 Tigre Reserves
1:3
+4
26/09
Home
43 Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves
0:3
+3
19/09
Away
41 Newell's Old Boys Reserves
0:1
+34
09/09
Away
34 Belgrano Reserves
1:0
+59
28/08
Home
15 Sarmiento Junin Reserves
2:0
+32
21/08
Home
32 Lanus Reserves
0:2
+3
Similarly, for Boca Juniors Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
17/10
Home
32 Lanus Reserves
2:0
+84
11/10
Away
30 Defensa y Justicia Reserves
1:0
+70
03/10
Home
25 Godoy Cruz Reserves
2:0
+54
25/09
Away
19 Atletico Platense Reserves
1:2
+17
19/09
Home
20 Central Cordoba Reserves
1:0
+25
08/09
Home
45 River Plate Reserves
0:1
+27
28/08
Away
29 Union de Santa Fe Reserves
2:0
+92
22/08
Away
15 Sarmiento Junin Reserves
1:0
+26
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 194 points to the home team and 395 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Talleres de Cordoba Reserves) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 57.14% of victories for the team Talleres de Cordoba Reserves occurred in home matches. For the team Boca Juniors Reserves this indicator is 61.82%. On average, this equates to 59.48%, suggesting a slight advantage for Talleres de Cordoba Reserves all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Talleres de Cordoba Reserves
Talleres de Cordoba Reserves 57.14%
Boca Juniors Reserves
Boca Juniors Reserves 61.82%
Average
Average 59.48%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.48% of the home team's points and 40.52% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Boca Juniors Reserves with an advantage of 160 points against 115. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 58.14% to 41.86%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 31.65% with a coefficient of 3.16. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.16, and for the away team's victory it is 2.73. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 46.33%, and the away team's victory - 53.67%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Boca Juniors Reserves's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.47%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.73, while in reality, it should be 2.52.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.16
3.16
2.73
Our calculation
3.49
3.16
2.52
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
2.73
2024 October
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Previous week
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ROI +12.44%
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Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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