For Stoke City, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Stoke City conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
35 Norwich City
1:1
+36
05/10
Away
26 Swansea City
0:0
+29
02/10
Home
17 Portsmouth
6:1
+102
28/09
Away
30 Middlesbrough
0:2
+4
20/09
Home
27 Hull City
1:3
+4
14/09
Away
28 Oxford United
0:1
+22
31/08
Away
23 Plymouth Argyle
1:0
+37
24/08
Home
38 West Bromwich Albion
1:2
+20
Similarly, for Bristol City, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Away
30 Middlesbrough
2:0
+106
06/10
Home
18 Cardiff City
1:1
+16
02/10
Home
24 Sheffield Wednesday
0:0
+19
29/09
Away
26 Swansea City
1:1
+31
21/09
Home
28 Oxford United
2:1
+35
14/09
Away
39 Blackburn Rovers
0:3
+3
31/08
Away
28 Derby County
0:3
+2
24/08
Home
18 Coventry City
1:1
+13
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 253 points to the home team and 225 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Stoke City) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 47.62% of victories for the team Stoke City occurred in home matches. For the team Bristol City this indicator is 60.35%. On average, this equates to 53.98%, suggesting a slight advantage for Stoke City all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Stoke City
Stoke City 47.62%
Bristol City
Bristol City 60.35%
Average
Average 53.98%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.98% of the home team's points and 46.02% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Stoke City with an advantage of 137 points against 103. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 56.9% to 43.1%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.7% with a coefficient of 3.61. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.52, and for the away team's victory it is 3.06. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 54.82%, and the away team's victory - 45.18%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Stoke City's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.89%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.52, while in reality, it should be 2.43.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.52
3.61
3.06
Our calculation
2.43
3.61
3.21
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.52
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