For Sportivo Barracas, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Sportivo Barracas conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
11/09
Away
29 Puerto Nuevo
0:2
+5
08/09
Home
39 Central Cordoba de Rosario
2:1
+53
03/09
Away
23 Mercedes
2:0
+93
26/08
Home
35 Deportivo Muniz
0:1
+22
19/08
Away
42 General Lamadrid
1:0
+90
13/08
Home
31 Ituzaingo
1:1
+23
09/08
Away
18 El Porvenir
0:1
+15
04/08
Home
33 Lujan
1:2
+19
Similarly, for Lugano, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
11/09
Home
31 Berazategui
1:3
+5
08/09
Away
15 Yupanqui
1:1
+17
03/09
Home
25 Justo Jose de Urquiza
2:2
+27
17/08
Home
38 Real Pilar
0:4
+2
13/08
Away
31 Argentino de Rosario
1:0
+53
09/08
Home
28 Defensores Cambaceres
1:1
+25
05/08
Away
34 Atlas
1:1
+32
28/07
Home
39 Deportivo Espanol
1:2
+24
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 320 points to the home team and 185 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Sportivo Barracas) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 63.93% of victories for the team Sportivo Barracas occurred in home matches. For the team Lugano this indicator is 41.67%. On average, this equates to 52.8%, suggesting a slight advantage for Sportivo Barracas all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Sportivo Barracas
Sportivo Barracas 63.93%
Lugano
Lugano 41.67%
Average
Average 52.8%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 52.8% of the home team's points and 47.2% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Sportivo Barracas with an advantage of 169 points against 87. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 65.98% to 34.02%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.74% with a coefficient of 3.48. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.98, and for the away team's victory it is 4.82. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 70.85%, and the away team's victory - 29.15%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Lugano's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.86%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.82, while in reality, it should be 4.13.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.98
3.48
4.82
Our calculation
2.13
3.48
4.13
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.82
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