Southampton vs Wolverhampton Wanderers prediction

Southampton

Match start date: Mar 15, 2025

VS

Tournament: England. Premier League

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Wolverhampton Wanderers

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Southampton and Wolverhampton Wanderers. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Southampton

For Southampton, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Southampton conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

08/03

Away

52 Liverpool

1:3

+10

25/02

Away

37 Chelsea

0:4

+3

22/02

Home

33 Brighton & Hove Albion

0:4

+1

15/02

Home

36 Bournemouth

1:3

+4

01/02

Away

14 Ipswich Town

2:1

+26

25/01

Home

38 Newcastle United

1:3

+4

19/01

Away

41 Nottingham Forest

2:3

+30

16/01

Away

25 Manchester United

1:3

+3

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Similarly, for Wolverhampton Wanderers, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

08/03

Home

27 Everton

1:1

+27

25/02

Home

33 Fulham

1:2

+26

22/02

Away

36 Bournemouth

1:0

+72

16/02

Away

52 Liverpool

1:2

+48

01/02

Home

28 Aston Villa

2:0

+62

25/01

Home

42 Arsenal

0:1

+23

20/01

Away

37 Chelsea

1:3

+6

15/01

Away

38 Newcastle United

0:3

+3

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 82 points to the home team and 267 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Southampton) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Southampton 82
Wolverhampton Wanderers 267

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 57.58% of victories for the team Southampton occurred in home matches. For the team Wolverhampton Wanderers this indicator is 55.39%. On average, this equates to 56.48%, suggesting a slight advantage for Southampton all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Southampton

Southampton 57.58%

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Wolverhampton Wanderers 55.39%

Average

Average 56.48%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.48% of the home team's points and 43.52% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Wolverhampton Wanderers with an advantage of 116 points against 46. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 71.59% to 28.41%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Southampton 46
Wolverhampton Wanderers 116

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.78% with a coefficient of 3.6. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.03, and for the away team's victory it is 2.11. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 34.41%, and the away team's victory - 65.59%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Southampton 34.41%
Wolverhampton Wanderers 65.59%

Our calculation

Southampton 28.41%
Wolverhampton Wanderers 71.59%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Wolverhampton Wanderers's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.18%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.11, while in reality, it should be 1.93.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

4.03

3.6

2.11

Our calculation

4.87

3.6

1.93

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

2.11

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1242

ROI +7.75%

EARNINGS +$9623

Previous week

QUANTITY 609

ROI +11.65%

EARNINGS +$7095

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