Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense prediction

Nacional Asuncion

Match start date: Mar 18, 2025

VS

Tournament: Paraguay. Primera A

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Sportivo Trinidense

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Nacional Asuncion and Sportivo Trinidense. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Nacional Asuncion

For Nacional Asuncion, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Nacional Asuncion conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

11/03

Away

21 Sportivo Luqueno

1:2

+24

02/03

Home

17 Atletico Tembetary

1:0

+24

23/02

Away

28 Sportivo Ameliano

1:2

+28

16/02

Home

36 Guarani Asuncion

1:2

+23

09/02

Away

26 Deportivo Recoleta

0:1

+25

02/02

Away

33 Cerro Porteno

1:3

+5

30/01

Home

55 Libertad

0:3

+3

25/01

Away

20 2 de Mayo

0:0

+21

Sportivo Trinidense

Similarly, for Sportivo Trinidense, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

09/03

Home

55 Libertad

1:1

+59

02/03

Away

20 2 de Mayo

1:1

+24

25/02

Home

29 General Caballero

0:0

+26

17/02

Away

40 Olimpia Asuncion

2:4

+6

09/02

Home

33 Cerro Porteno

1:0

+52

02/02

Home

21 Sportivo Luqueno

1:0

+33

29/01

Away

17 Atletico Tembetary

2:2

+15

25/01

Home

28 Sportivo Ameliano

1:2

+20

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 153 points to the home team and 235 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Nacional Asuncion) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Nacional Asuncion 153
Sportivo Trinidense 235

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 67.24% of victories for the team Nacional Asuncion occurred in home matches. For the team Sportivo Trinidense this indicator is 50.85%. On average, this equates to 59.04%, suggesting a slight advantage for Nacional Asuncion all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Nacional Asuncion

Nacional Asuncion 67.24%

Sportivo Trinidense

Sportivo Trinidense 50.85%

Average

Average 59.04%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.04% of the home team's points and 40.96% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Sportivo Trinidense with an advantage of 96 points against 90. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 51.59% to 48.41%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Nacional Asuncion 90
Sportivo Trinidense 96

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.33% with a coefficient of 3.41. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.33, and for the away team's victory it is 3.6. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 60.66%, and the away team's victory - 39.34%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Nacional Asuncion 60.66%
Sportivo Trinidense 39.34%

Our calculation

Nacional Asuncion 48.41%
Sportivo Trinidense 51.59%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sportivo Trinidense's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 12.25%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.6, while in reality, it should be 2.74.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.33

3.41

3.6

Our calculation

2.92

3.41

2.74

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

3.6

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1637

ROI +8.94%

EARNINGS +$14630

Previous week

QUANTITY 620

ROI +13.84%

EARNINGS +$8583

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