San Martin San Juan vs Atletico Platense prediction

San Martin San Juan

Match start date: Mar 18, 2025

VS

Tournament: Argentina. Primera Division

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Atletico Platense

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between San Martin San Juan and Atletico Platense. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

San Martin San Juan

For San Martin San Juan, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team San Martin San Juan conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

08/03

Away

24 Velez Sarsfield

0:1

+29

01/03

Home

23 Belgrano

3:1

+51

23/02

Home

40 River Plate

0:2

+4

17/02

Away

22 Gimnasia La Plata

0:1

+21

14/02

Home

26 Talleres de Cordoba

0:1

+14

07/02

Away

18 Sarmiento Junin

1:1

+22

02/02

Home

33 Rosario Central

0:0

+19

28/01

Away

27 Deportivo Riestra

0:0

+30

Atletico Platense

Similarly, for Atletico Platense, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

09/03

Home

31 Lanus

0:0

+27

22/02

Away

29 Godoy Cruz

1:1

+40

18/02

Home

42 Independiente Avellaneda

1:1

+30

14/02

Away

30 San Lorenzo

1:2

+30

09/02

Home

18 Instituto

1:0

+21

04/02

Away

33 Argentinos Juniors

0:1

+35

29/01

Away

24 Velez Sarsfield

1:0

+48

26/01

Home

40 River Plate

1:1

+22

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 190 points to the home team and 252 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (San Martin San Juan) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

San Martin San Juan 190
Atletico Platense 252

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 65.46% of victories for the team San Martin San Juan occurred in home matches. For the team Atletico Platense this indicator is 67.35%. On average, this equates to 66.4%, suggesting a slight advantage for San Martin San Juan all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

San Martin San Juan

San Martin San Juan 65.46%

Atletico Platense

Atletico Platense 67.35%

Average

Average 66.4%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 66.4% of the home team's points and 33.6% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is San Martin San Juan with an advantage of 126 points against 85. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.88% to 40.12%.

Points earned with home win percentage

San Martin San Juan 126
Atletico Platense 85

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 34.01% with a coefficient of 2.94. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.96, and for the away team's victory it is 3.11. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 51.3%, and the away team's victory - 48.7%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

San Martin San Juan 51.3%
Atletico Platense 48.7%

Our calculation

San Martin San Juan 59.88%
Atletico Platense 40.12%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of San Martin San Juan's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.58%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.96, while in reality, it should be 2.53.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.96

2.94

3.11

Our calculation

2.53

2.94

3.78

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Home Win

2.96

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1637

ROI +8.94%

EARNINGS +$14630

Previous week

QUANTITY 620

ROI +13.84%

EARNINGS +$8583

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