For South Adelaide Panthers Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team South Adelaide Panthers Reserves conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
45 Croydon Kings Reserves
0:1
+35
13/07
Home
46 Adelaide United Reserves
0:2
+7
29/06
Away
33 Modbury Jets Reserves
1:3
+5
22/06
Home
48 Campbelltown City Reserves
1:3
+7
15/06
Away
23 Adelaide Raiders Reserves
0:10
+1
08/06
Home
19 FK Beograd Reserves
4:1
+80
01/06
Away
30 Adelaide Comets Reserves
2:5
+2
25/05
Home
49 Adelaide City Reserves
0:6
+2
Similarly, for Metrostars Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
29 Adelaide Olympic Reserves
0:2
+5
13/07
Home
33 Para Hills Knights Reserves
2:2
+36
29/06
Away
45 Croydon Kings Reserves
2:4
+6
15/06
Away
33 Modbury Jets Reserves
1:2
+27
08/06
Home
48 Campbelltown City Reserves
0:5
+2
01/06
Away
23 Adelaide Raiders Reserves
4:0
+110
25/05
Home
19 FK Beograd Reserves
2:1
+28
18/05
Home
30 Adelaide Comets Reserves
4:2
+68
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 139 points to the home team and 281 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (South Adelaide Panthers Reserves) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 51.35% of victories for the team South Adelaide Panthers Reserves occurred in home matches. For the team Metrostars Reserves this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 50.68%, suggesting a slight advantage for South Adelaide Panthers Reserves all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
South Adelaide Panthers Reserves
South Adelaide Panthers Reserves 51.35%
Metrostars Reserves
Metrostars Reserves 50%
Average
Average 50.68%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 50.68% of the home team's points and 49.32% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Metrostars Reserves with an advantage of 138 points against 70. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 66.34% to 33.66%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 17.21% with a coefficient of 5.81. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 6.53, and for the away team's victory it is 1.48. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 18.51%, and the away team's victory - 81.49%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of South Adelaide Panthers Reserves's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 13.04%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 6.53, while in reality, it should be 3.59.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
6.53
5.81
1.48
Our calculation
3.59
5.81
1.82
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
6.53
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
USA. MLS
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