For Sandhausen, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Sandhausen conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
39 Energie Cottbus
1:1
+52
05/10
Home
26 Waldhof Mannheim
2:1
+37
27/09
Away
22 Unterhaching
0:0
+27
24/09
Home
25 Ingolstadt 04
4:3
+38
21/09
Away
35 Wehen Wiesbaden
3:1
+116
13/09
Home
31 Borussia Dortmund II
3:1
+74
31/08
Away
38 Arminia Bielefeld
1:1
+37
24/08
Home
25 Hannover 96 II
0:1
+12
Similarly, for Stuttgart II, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
35 Saarbrucken
2:3
+29
06/10
Away
18 Osnabruck
0:1
+17
28/09
Away
25 Hannover 96 II
1:3
+4
24/09
Home
38 Arminia Bielefeld
3:0
+161
21/09
Away
39 Energie Cottbus
0:4
+2
14/09
Home
25 Ingolstadt 04
3:2
+35
31/08
Away
39 Dynamo Dresden
0:2
+6
25/08
Home
35 Wehen Wiesbaden
2:2
+25
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 393 points to the home team and 278 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Sandhausen) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.02% of victories for the team Sandhausen occurred in home matches. For the team Stuttgart II this indicator is 58.33%. On average, this equates to 59.68%, suggesting a slight advantage for Sandhausen all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Sandhausen
Sandhausen 61.02%
Stuttgart II
Stuttgart II 58.33%
Average
Average 59.68%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.68% of the home team's points and 40.33% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Sandhausen with an advantage of 234 points against 112. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 67.62% to 32.38%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.04% with a coefficient of 4.34. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.8, and for the away team's victory it is 4.69. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 72.27%, and the away team's victory - 27.73%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Stuttgart II's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.22%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.69, while in reality, it should be 4.01.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.8
4.34
4.69
Our calculation
1.92
4.34
4.01
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.69
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