For Rockdale Ilinden, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Rockdale Ilinden conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
38 Sydney Olympic
1:2
+36
14/07
Home
38 Sydney United
4:0
+207
06/07
Away
25 Spirit
2:1
+52
30/06
Home
20 Hills United
5:0
+79
23/06
Away
41 Blacktown City
2:1
+74
19/06
Away
47 Marconi Stallions
0:9
+2
16/06
Home
24 Manly United
4:0
+84
12/06
Away
20 St George Saints
4:1
+90
Similarly, for APIA Tigers, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Away
38 Sydney United
0:2
+7
17/07
Away
38 Sydney Olympic
1:1
+44
13/07
Home
32 Wollongong Wolves
1:1
+28
10/07
Away
20 Central Coast Mariners U-21
2:3
+18
07/07
Home
23 Sutherland Sharks
3:2
+31
29/06
Home
20 St George Saints
5:0
+72
16/06
Home
47 Marconi Stallions
1:4
+3
12/06
Home
33 St George City FA
4:1
+114
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 623 points to the home team and 318 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Rockdale Ilinden) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.71% of victories for the team Rockdale Ilinden occurred in home matches. For the team APIA Tigers this indicator is 57.58%. On average, this equates to 56.65%, suggesting a slight advantage for Rockdale Ilinden all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Rockdale Ilinden
Rockdale Ilinden 55.71%
APIA Tigers
APIA Tigers 57.58%
Average
Average 56.65%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.65% of the home team's points and 43.36% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Rockdale Ilinden with an advantage of 353 points against 138. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 71.92% to 28.08%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.1% with a coefficient of 4.15. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.34, and for the away team's victory it is 3.02. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 56.41%, and the away team's victory - 43.6%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Rockdale Ilinden's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 13.07%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.34, while in reality, it should be 1.83.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.34
4.15
3.02
Our calculation
1.83
4.15
4.69
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.34
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Australia. National Premier League. New South Wales
QUANTITY 172
ROI +45.74%
EARNINGS +$7867
USA. MLS
Sweden. Superettan
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