For Queens Park Rangers, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Queens Park Rangers conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
17 Portsmouth
1:2
+17
05/10
Away
28 Derby County
0:2
+5
01/10
Home
27 Hull City
1:3
+4
28/09
Away
39 Blackburn Rovers
0:2
+5
21/09
Home
23 Millwall
1:1
+25
14/09
Away
24 Sheffield Wednesday
1:1
+23
30/08
Away
24 Luton Town
2:1
+36
24/08
Home
23 Plymouth Argyle
1:1
+18
Similarly, for Coventry City, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Away
26 Preston North End
0:1
+27
05/10
Home
24 Sheffield Wednesday
1:2
+17
01/10
Home
39 Blackburn Rovers
3:0
+179
28/09
Away
42 Leeds United
0:3
+4
21/09
Home
26 Swansea City
1:2
+18
14/09
Away
33 Watford
1:1
+35
31/08
Home
35 Norwich City
0:1
+20
24/08
Away
30 Bristol City
1:1
+28
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 132 points to the home team and 328 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Queens Park Rangers) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 42.62% of victories for the team Queens Park Rangers occurred in home matches. For the team Coventry City this indicator is 55.17%. On average, this equates to 48.9%, suggesting a slight advantage for Queens Park Rangers all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Queens Park Rangers
Queens Park Rangers 42.62%
Coventry City
Coventry City 55.17%
Average
Average 48.9%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 48.9% of the home team's points and 51.1% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Coventry City with an advantage of 168 points against 65. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.19% to 27.81%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.1% with a coefficient of 3.69. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.01, and for the away team's victory it is 2.52. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 45.61%, and the away team's victory - 54.39%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Coventry City's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 17.27%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.52, while in reality, it should be 1.9.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.01
3.69
2.52
Our calculation
4.93
3.69
1.9
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
2.52
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