For Preston North End, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Preston North End conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
18 Coventry City
1:0
+29
05/10
Away
45 Burnley
0:0
+57
02/10
Home
33 Watford
3:0
+123
28/09
Away
23 Millwall
1:3
+3
22/09
Home
39 Blackburn Rovers
0:0
+33
14/09
Away
30 Middlesbrough
1:1
+29
31/08
Away
28 Oxford United
1:3
+4
24/08
Home
24 Luton Town
1:0
+27
Similarly, for Norwich City, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Away
24 Stoke City
1:1
+30
05/10
Home
27 Hull City
4:0
+130
01/10
Home
42 Leeds United
1:1
+35
28/09
Away
28 Derby County
3:2
+58
21/09
Home
33 Watford
4:1
+112
14/09
Away
26 Swansea City
0:1
+22
31/08
Away
18 Coventry City
1:0
+31
24/08
Home
44 Sheffield United
1:1
+31
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 305 points to the home team and 448 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Preston North End) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.5% of victories for the team Preston North End occurred in home matches. For the team Norwich City this indicator is 64.41%. On average, this equates to 63.45%, suggesting a slight advantage for Preston North End all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Preston North End
Preston North End 62.5%
Norwich City
Norwich City 64.41%
Average
Average 63.45%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 63.45% of the home team's points and 36.55% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Preston North End with an advantage of 193 points against 164. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.12% to 45.88%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.01% with a coefficient of 3.57. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.12, and for the away team's victory it is 2.51. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 44.52%, and the away team's victory - 55.48%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Preston North End's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.52%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.12, while in reality, it should be 2.57.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.12
3.57
2.51
Our calculation
2.57
3.57
3.03
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
3.12
2024 October
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EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
England. Championship
QUANTITY 704
ROI +5.48%
EARNINGS +$3858
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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