For Peterborough United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Peterborough United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
41 Wycombe Wanderers
1:3
+7
12/10
Home
24 Rotherham United
3:3
+20
05/10
Home
32 Stevenage
2:1
+46
01/10
Away
27 Wigan Athletic
0:3
+2
28/09
Away
52 Birmingham City
2:3
+44
24/09
Away
17 Leyton Orient
2:2
+16
21/09
Home
25 Bristol Rovers
3:2
+35
14/09
Home
38 Lincoln City
1:1
+31
Similarly, for Blackpool, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
34 Barnsley
1:2
+27
05/10
Away
42 Mansfield Town
0:2
+7
01/10
Home
38 Lincoln City
1:1
+38
28/09
Home
10 Burton Albion
3:0
+40
24/09
Away
36 Huddersfield Town
2:0
+113
21/09
Away
32 Charlton Athletic
2:1
+57
14/09
Home
40 Exeter City
2:1
+53
31/08
Home
41 Wycombe Wanderers
2:2
+31
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 202 points to the home team and 366 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Peterborough United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60.32% of victories for the team Peterborough United occurred in home matches. For the team Blackpool this indicator is 63.49%. On average, this equates to 61.91%, suggesting a slight advantage for Peterborough United all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Peterborough United
Peterborough United 60.32%
Blackpool
Blackpool 63.49%
Average
Average 61.91%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.91% of the home team's points and 38.1% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Blackpool with an advantage of 140 points against 125. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.8% to 47.2%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.77% with a coefficient of 3.88. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.8, and for the away team's victory it is 2.6. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 48.14%, and the away team's victory - 51.86%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Blackpool's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 0.94%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.6, while in reality, it should be 2.55.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.8
3.88
2.6
Our calculation
2.85
3.88
2.55
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
2.6
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