For Oxford City, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Oxford City conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
23 Warrington Town
2:0
+78
05/10
Away
44 Scunthorpe United
2:2
+54
24/09
Away
32 Leamington
1:4
+3
21/09
Home
24 Needham Market
3:0
+101
17/09
Home
27 Peterborough Sports
1:3
+4
31/08
Home
36 Chorley
2:2
+26
26/08
Away
34 Kidderminster Harriers
0:4
+2
24/08
Home
28 South Shields
1:4
+2
Similarly, for King's Lynn Town, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
23 Buxton
2:0
+74
05/10
Home
28 Darlington
2:1
+48
21/09
Away
38 Hereford
0:0
+40
07/09
Home
38 Curzon Ashton
0:2
+6
03/09
Away
31 Scarborough Athletic
0:0
+31
31/08
Away
14 Radcliffe
2:1
+21
26/08
Home
27 Peterborough Sports
1:2
+20
24/08
Away
17 Marine
1:0
+25
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 269 points to the home team and 265 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Oxford City) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 57.14% of victories for the team Oxford City occurred in home matches. For the team King's Lynn Town this indicator is 49.09%. On average, this equates to 53.12%, suggesting a slight advantage for Oxford City all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Oxford City
Oxford City 57.14%
King's Lynn Town
King's Lynn Town 49.09%
Average
Average 53.12%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.12% of the home team's points and 46.88% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Oxford City with an advantage of 143 points against 124. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 53.54% to 46.46%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.4% with a coefficient of 3.65. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.84, and for the away team's victory it is 2.67. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 48.42%, and the away team's victory - 51.58%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Oxford City's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.44%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.84, while in reality, it should be 2.57.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.84
3.65
2.67
Our calculation
2.57
3.65
2.96
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.84
2024 October
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ROI +18.11%
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