For Needham Market, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Needham Market conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
34 Kidderminster Harriers
0:3
+3
12/10
Away
36 Chorley
0:1
+35
05/10
Home
28 South Shields
3:0
+122
21/09
Away
21 Oxford City
0:3
+2
07/09
Home
22 Farsley Celtic
3:0
+90
03/09
Away
38 Hereford
1:0
+63
31/08
Away
23 Warrington Town
2:1
+35
26/08
Home
39 Alfreton Town
0:2
+4
Similarly, for Brackley Town, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
14 Radcliffe
0:1
+12
05/10
Away
32 Southport
0:0
+37
21/09
Home
17 Marine
1:0
+28
07/09
Away
27 Peterborough Sports
2:0
+80
03/09
Home
36 Chorley
0:2
+4
31/08
Home
38 Hereford
1:2
+23
26/08
Away
33 Spennymoor Town
2:2
+35
24/08
Home
38 Curzon Ashton
4:0
+159
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 354 points to the home team and 377 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Needham Market) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.03% of victories for the team Needham Market occurred in home matches. For the team Brackley Town this indicator is 54.24%. On average, this equates to 53.63%, suggesting a slight advantage for Needham Market all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Needham Market
Needham Market 53.03%
Brackley Town
Brackley Town 54.24%
Average
Average 53.63%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.63% of the home team's points and 46.37% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Needham Market with an advantage of 190 points against 175. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.04% to 47.96%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.62% with a coefficient of 3.62. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.12, and for the away team's victory it is 2.08. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 33.56%, and the away team's victory - 66.44%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Needham Market's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 18.49%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.12, while in reality, it should be 2.65.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4.12
3.62
2.08
Our calculation
2.65
3.62
2.88
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
4.12
2024 October
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England. National League North
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ROI +18.11%
EARNINGS +$14285
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ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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