For Melgar, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Melgar conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
18/10
Away
21 Sport Boys
2:0
+94
29/09
Away
45 Alianza Lima
1:1
+63
24/09
Home
39 Atletico Grau
0:0
+25
20/09
Away
16 Carlos A. Mannucci
1:1
+21
15/09
Home
22 Los Chankas
2:0
+33
07/09
Home
17 Comerciantes Unidos
3:0
+51
26/08
Away
30 Cienciano
1:3
+5
22/08
Home
40 Sporting Cristal
2:0
+65
Similarly, for UTC Cajamarca, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
18/10
Home
45 Alianza Lima
0:1
+25
30/09
Away
39 Atletico Grau
0:4
+3
24/09
Home
16 Carlos A. Mannucci
2:0
+28
19/09
Away
22 Los Chankas
1:1
+35
13/09
Home
30 Cienciano
1:2
+12
25/08
Away
40 Sporting Cristal
0:4
+3
20/08
Home
24 ADT
1:1
+10
15/08
Away
17 Comerciantes Unidos
1:1
+19
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 357 points to the home team and 134 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Melgar) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 64.41% of victories for the team Melgar occurred in home matches. For the team UTC Cajamarca this indicator is 76.92%. On average, this equates to 70.67%, suggesting a slight advantage for Melgar all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Melgar
Melgar 64.41%
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca 76.92%
Average
Average 70.67%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 70.67% of the home team's points and 29.34% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Melgar with an advantage of 252 points against 39. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 86.48% to 13.52%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 14.49% with a coefficient of 6.9. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.26, and for the away team's victory it is 16.86. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 93.06%, and the away team's victory - 6.94%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of UTC Cajamarca's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.46%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 16.86, while in reality, it should be 8.65.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.26
6.9
16.86
Our calculation
1.35
6.9
8.65
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
16.86
2024 October
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Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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