For Kongsvinger, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Kongsvinger conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
02/09
Away
25 Asane
1:2
+26
27/08
Home
14 Sandnes Ulf
1:0
+27
19/08
Away
40 Bryne
1:1
+48
11/08
Home
36 Lyn
1:1
+34
03/08
Away
27 Ranheim
2:2
+28
27/07
Home
26 Levanger
3:3
+23
20/07
Away
37 Moss
0:1
+29
22/06
Away
29 Sogndal
0:2
+4
Similarly, for Moss, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
01/09
Home
22 Mjondalen
1:0
+33
26/08
Away
34 Egersund
2:3
+32
19/08
Home
29 Sogndal
3:0
+117
10/08
Away
20 Aalesund
0:1
+19
03/08
Home
52 Valerenga
0:2
+7
27/07
Away
35 Stabaek
4:1
+190
20/07
Home
31 Kongsvinger
1:0
+40
23/06
Away
25 Asane
4:1
+123
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 218 points to the home team and 559 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Kongsvinger) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50.79% of victories for the team Kongsvinger occurred in home matches. For the team Moss this indicator is 64.06%. On average, this equates to 57.43%, suggesting a slight advantage for Kongsvinger all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger 50.79%
Moss
Moss 64.06%
Average
Average 57.43%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.43% of the home team's points and 42.57% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Moss with an advantage of 238 points against 125. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 65.49% to 34.51%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.88% with a coefficient of 4.02. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.02, and for the away team's victory it is 3.89. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 65.82%, and the away team's victory - 34.18%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Moss's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 31.07%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.89, while in reality, it should be 2.03.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.02
4.02
3.89
Our calculation
3.86
4.02
2.03
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
3.89
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