For Ituzaingo, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Ituzaingo conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
11/09
Away
35 Deportivo Muniz
0:0
+43
07/09
Home
42 General Lamadrid
1:2
+30
17/08
Home
33 Lujan
0:1
+27
13/08
Away
29 Sportivo Barracas
1:1
+34
10/08
Home
31 Berazategui
1:1
+28
04/08
Away
15 Yupanqui
4:3
+26
28/07
Home
25 Justo Jose de Urquiza
1:0
+33
21/07
Away
11 Deportivo Paraguayo
1:1
+9
Similarly, for Mercedes, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
11/09
Home
18 El Porvenir
1:0
+22
07/09
Away
33 Lujan
0:2
+6
03/09
Home
29 Sportivo Barracas
0:2
+3
17/08
Home
15 Yupanqui
0:0
+12
13/08
Away
25 Justo Jose de Urquiza
1:2
+24
10/08
Home
11 Deportivo Paraguayo
2:1
+16
03/08
Away
38 Real Pilar
0:1
+31
27/07
Home
31 Argentino de Rosario
1:1
+19
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 229 points to the home team and 132 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Ituzaingo) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.85% of victories for the team Ituzaingo occurred in home matches. For the team Mercedes this indicator is 69.09%. On average, this equates to 61.47%, suggesting a slight advantage for Ituzaingo all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Ituzaingo
Ituzaingo 53.85%
Mercedes
Mercedes 69.09%
Average
Average 61.47%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.47% of the home team's points and 38.53% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Ituzaingo with an advantage of 141 points against 51. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 73.46% to 26.54%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.57% with a coefficient of 3.5. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.95, and for the away team's victory it is 4.98. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 71.89%, and the away team's victory - 28.12%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Ituzaingo's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.57%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.95, while in reality, it should be 1.91.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.95
3.5
4.98
Our calculation
1.91
3.5
5.27
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
1.95
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