For Green Gully, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Green Gully conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
29 Port Melbourne Sharks
2:3
+29
13/07
Home
48 South Melbourne
0:1
+37
06/07
Home
30 Dandenong City
2:3
+21
29/06
Away
27 Dandenong Thunder
1:1
+29
22/06
Home
43 Oakleigh Cannons
4:2
+102
15/06
Away
28 Altona Magic
0:0
+29
08/06
Home
40 Heidelberg United
2:0
+85
01/06
Away
15 Manningham United Blues
1:1
+12
Similarly, for Avondale FC, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
27 Dandenong Thunder
2:1
+48
13/07
Home
43 Oakleigh Cannons
3:3
+41
06/07
Away
28 Altona Magic
0:1
+26
28/06
Away
40 Heidelberg United
1:1
+47
22/06
Home
15 Manningham United Blues
5:1
+70
15/06
Home
44 Hume City
5:0
+200
08/06
Home
10 Moreland City
5:1
+36
01/06
Home
34 Melbourne Knights
1:1
+25
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 344 points to the home team and 493 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Green Gully) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.52% of victories for the team Green Gully occurred in home matches. For the team Avondale FC this indicator is 56.25%. On average, this equates to 56.39%, suggesting a slight advantage for Green Gully all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Green Gully
Green Gully 56.52%
Avondale FC
Avondale FC 56.25%
Average
Average 56.39%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.39% of the home team's points and 43.61% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Avondale FC with an advantage of 215 points against 194. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.59% to 47.41%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 22.32% with a coefficient of 4.48. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.48, and for the away team's victory it is 1.8. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 28.7%, and the away team's victory - 71.3%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Green Gully's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 18.72%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.48, while in reality, it should be 2.72.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4.48
4.48
1.8
Our calculation
2.72
4.48
2.45
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
4.48
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Australia. National Premier League. Victoria
QUANTITY 254
ROI +18.41%
EARNINGS +$4677
USA. MLS
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