For Gillingham, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Gillingham conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
37 Bradford City
1:2
+37
12/10
Home
23 Accrington Stanley
1:2
+18
05/10
Away
35 Crewe Alexandra
0:2
+6
01/10
Home
30 Grimsby Town
0:1
+19
28/09
Home
33 Barrow
2:0
+76
21/09
Away
40 Notts County
1:0
+68
14/09
Home
26 Tranmere Rovers
3:0
+80
07/09
Away
40 Doncaster Rovers
0:1
+32
Similarly, for Newport County, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
18/10
Home
34 Chesterfield
0:3
+2
12/10
Away
26 Harrogate Town
0:1
+24
07/10
Away
37 Bradford City
1:3
+7
01/10
Home
25 Salford City
3:1
+68
28/09
Home
35 Crewe Alexandra
2:1
+51
21/09
Away
33 Barrow
0:2
+5
14/09
Away
21 Swindon Town
0:4
+1
07/09
Home
42 Port Vale
1:4
+2
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 335 points to the home team and 160 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Gillingham) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.22% of victories for the team Gillingham occurred in home matches. For the team Newport County this indicator is 61.43%. On average, this equates to 58.33%, suggesting a slight advantage for Gillingham all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Gillingham
Gillingham 55.22%
Newport County
Newport County 61.43%
Average
Average 58.33%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.33% of the home team's points and 41.67% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Gillingham with an advantage of 195 points against 67. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 74.52% to 25.48%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.75% with a coefficient of 4.21. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.71, and for the away team's victory it is 5.61. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 76.64%, and the away team's victory - 23.36%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Newport County's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.13%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.61, while in reality, it should be 5.15.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.71
4.21
5.61
Our calculation
1.76
4.21
5.15
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
5.61
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
2024 September
QUANTITY 1553
ROI +1.18%
EARNINGS +$1831
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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