For FK Beograd Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team FK Beograd Reserves conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
48 Campbelltown City Reserves
1:2
+46
13/07
Home
23 Adelaide Raiders Reserves
2:1
+41
02/07
Away
33 Para Hills Knights Reserves
2:1
+60
22/06
Away
30 Adelaide Comets Reserves
1:1
+33
15/06
Home
49 Adelaide City Reserves
0:1
+39
08/06
Away
6 South Adelaide Panthers Reserves
1:4
+0
01/06
Home
29 Adelaide Olympic Reserves
4:4
+23
25/05
Away
23 Metrostars Reserves
1:2
+15
Similarly, for Modbury Jets Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
30 Adelaide Comets Reserves
1:3
+4
13/07
Away
49 Adelaide City Reserves
0:4
+3
29/06
Home
6 South Adelaide Panthers Reserves
3:1
+17
22/06
Away
29 Adelaide Olympic Reserves
2:3
+25
15/06
Home
23 Metrostars Reserves
2:1
+36
08/06
Away
45 Croydon Kings Reserves
3:2
+62
01/06
Home
46 Adelaide United Reserves
4:1
+169
25/05
Away
33 Para Hills Knights Reserves
2:0
+87
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 257 points to the home team and 404 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (FK Beograd Reserves) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 51.43% of victories for the team FK Beograd Reserves occurred in home matches. For the team Modbury Jets Reserves this indicator is 52.24%. On average, this equates to 51.83%, suggesting a slight advantage for FK Beograd Reserves all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
FK Beograd Reserves
FK Beograd Reserves 51.43%
Modbury Jets Reserves
Modbury Jets Reserves 52.24%
Average
Average 51.83%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 51.83% of the home team's points and 48.17% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Modbury Jets Reserves with an advantage of 195 points against 133. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.36% to 40.64%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.45% with a coefficient of 4.09. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.97, and for the away team's victory it is 2.39. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 44.63%, and the away team's victory - 55.37%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Modbury Jets Reserves's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.99%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.39, while in reality, it should be 2.23.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.97
4.09
2.39
Our calculation
3.26
4.09
2.23
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
2.39
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
USA. MLS
Sweden. Superettan
2024 © betzax.com