For Farnborough, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Farnborough conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
30 Chelmsford City
2:1
+66
12/10
Home
14 Enfield Town
4:1
+60
05/10
Home
16 Aveley
2:0
+39
21/09
Away
36 Hemel Hempstead Town
3:3
+40
07/09
Home
28 Salisbury FC
3:1
+61
03/09
Away
23 Hornchurch
0:1
+19
31/08
Home
11 St Albans City
1:0
+16
26/08
Home
33 Tonbridge Angels
0:2
+3
Similarly, for Truro City, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
22 Hampton & Richmond Borough
3:0
+95
05/10
Home
36 Hemel Hempstead Town
1:0
+63
21/09
Away
16 Aveley
2:1
+30
07/09
Home
37 Eastbourne Borough
0:1
+25
03/09
Away
26 Bath City
0:1
+22
31/08
Home
30 Chelmsford City
2:1
+44
26/08
Home
35 Worthing
5:0
+141
24/08
Home
14 Enfield Town
3:1
+30
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 306 points to the home team and 451 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Farnborough) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.3% of victories for the team Farnborough occurred in home matches. For the team Truro City this indicator is 56.06%. On average, this equates to 59.18%, suggesting a slight advantage for Farnborough all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Farnborough
Farnborough 62.3%
Truro City
Truro City 56.06%
Average
Average 59.18%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.18% of the home team's points and 40.82% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Truro City with an advantage of 184 points against 181. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 50.43% to 49.57%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.95% with a coefficient of 3.71. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.32, and for the away team's victory it is 3.34. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 58.96%, and the away team's victory - 41.04%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Truro City's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.39%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.34, while in reality, it should be 2.71.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.32
3.71
3.34
Our calculation
2.76
3.71
2.71
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.34
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
England. National League South
QUANTITY 715
ROI +13.11%
EARNINGS +$9373
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
2024 © betzax.com