Everton vs West Ham United prediction

Everton

Match start date: Mar 15, 2025

VS

Tournament: England. Premier League

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West Ham United

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Everton and West Ham United. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Everton

For Everton, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Everton conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

08/03

Away

25 Wolverhampton Wanderers

1:1

+32

26/02

Away

30 Brentford

1:1

+38

22/02

Home

25 Manchester United

2:2

+23

15/02

Away

39 Crystal Palace

2:1

+70

12/02

Home

52 Liverpool

2:2

+43

01/02

Home

9 Leicester City

4:0

+38

25/01

Away

33 Brighton & Hove Albion

1:0

+55

19/01

Home

24 Tottenham Hotspur

3:2

+30

West Ham United

Similarly, for West Ham United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

10/03

Home

38 Newcastle United

0:1

+26

27/02

Home

9 Leicester City

2:0

+23

22/02

Away

42 Arsenal

1:0

+93

15/02

Home

30 Brentford

0:1

+18

03/02

Away

37 Chelsea

1:2

+38

26/01

Away

28 Aston Villa

1:1

+32

18/01

Home

39 Crystal Palace

0:2

+4

14/01

Home

33 Fulham

3:2

+36

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 328 points to the home team and 271 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Everton) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Everton 328
West Ham United 271

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 57.41% of victories for the team Everton occurred in home matches. For the team West Ham United this indicator is 62.3%. On average, this equates to 59.85%, suggesting a slight advantage for Everton all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Everton

Everton 57.41%

West Ham United

West Ham United 62.3%

Average

Average 59.85%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.85% of the home team's points and 40.15% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Everton with an advantage of 197 points against 109. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 64.4% to 35.6%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Everton 197
West Ham United 109

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.15% with a coefficient of 3.43. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.24, and for the away team's victory it is 3.83. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 63.1%, and the away team's victory - 36.9%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Everton 63.1%
West Ham United 36.9%

Our calculation

Everton 64.4%
West Ham United 35.6%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Everton's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.19%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.24, while in reality, it should be 2.19.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.24

3.43

3.83

Our calculation

2.19

3.43

3.97

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

2.24

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1240

ROI +7.56%

EARNINGS +$9374

Previous week

QUANTITY 609

ROI +11.65%

EARNINGS +$7095

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