For Erzgebirge Aue, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Erzgebirge Aue conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
18/10
Away
26 Waldhof Mannheim
0:3
+3
05/10
Home
22 Hansa Rostock
1:2
+16
28/09
Away
33 Viktoria Koln
0:2
+6
24/09
Home
35 Wehen Wiesbaden
2:1
+48
20/09
Away
22 Unterhaching
2:2
+26
15/09
Home
38 Arminia Bielefeld
1:3
+4
31/08
Away
27 Alemannia Aachen
2:1
+48
23/08
Home
39 Dynamo Dresden
2:0
+72
Similarly, for Energie Cottbus, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
44 Sandhausen
1:1
+41
06/10
Away
25 Hannover 96 II
0:0
+32
28/09
Home
35 Saarbrucken
4:1
+160
24/09
Away
18 Osnabruck
5:2
+88
21/09
Home
24 Stuttgart II
4:0
+100
15/09
Away
22 Verl
3:0
+108
01/09
Away
35 Wehen Wiesbaden
1:2
+29
24/08
Home
27 Alemannia Aachen
2:1
+31
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 222 points to the home team and 590 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Erzgebirge Aue) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 63.33% of victories for the team Erzgebirge Aue occurred in home matches. For the team Energie Cottbus this indicator is 56.92%. On average, this equates to 60.13%, suggesting a slight advantage for Erzgebirge Aue all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue 63.33%
Energie Cottbus
Energie Cottbus 56.92%
Average
Average 60.13%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.13% of the home team's points and 39.87% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Energie Cottbus with an advantage of 235 points against 134. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.76% to 36.24%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.32% with a coefficient of 3.95. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.13, and for the away team's victory it is 3.62. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 63%, and the away team's victory - 37%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Energie Cottbus's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 26.76%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.62, while in reality, it should be 2.1.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.13
3.95
3.62
Our calculation
3.7
3.95
2.1
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
3.62
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
Germany. 3 Liga
QUANTITY 455
ROI +16.18%
EARNINGS +$7364
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
2024 © betzax.com