For Edgeworth Eagles, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Edgeworth Eagles conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
24/07
Home
16 New Lambton
3:0
+90
17/07
Away
39 Charlestown Azzurri
2:2
+43
13/07
Away
11 Adamstown Rosebud
4:0
+58
03/07
Home
56 Broadmeadow Magic
1:0
+89
29/06
Home
28 Valentine Phoenix
3:0
+135
19/06
Home
30 Maitland
2:4
+4
29/05
Home
11 Adamstown Rosebud
7:0
+48
25/05
Home
38 Newcastle Olympic
4:0
+162
Similarly, for Lake Macquarie City, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
13/07
Home
30 Cooks Hill United
2:7
+2
06/07
Home
30 Maitland
2:4
+5
03/07
Home
38 Newcastle Olympic
1:4
+3
29/06
Away
11 Adamstown Rosebud
1:1
+10
22/06
Home
16 New Lambton
0:1
+13
15/06
Home
28 Valentine Phoenix
0:2
+4
12/06
Home
11 Adamstown Rosebud
1:3
+1
07/06
Away
30 Cooks Hill United
1:4
+2
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 628 points to the home team and 41 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Edgeworth Eagles) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.03% of victories for the team Edgeworth Eagles occurred in home matches. For the team Lake Macquarie City this indicator is 45.33%. On average, this equates to 49.18%, suggesting a slight advantage for Edgeworth Eagles all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Edgeworth Eagles
Edgeworth Eagles 53.03%
Lake Macquarie City
Lake Macquarie City 45.33%
Average
Average 49.18%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 49.18% of the home team's points and 50.82% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Edgeworth Eagles with an advantage of 309 points against 21. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 93.69% to 6.31%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 6.69% with a coefficient of 14.95. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.11, and for the away team's victory it is 27.68. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 96.13%, and the away team's victory - 3.87%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Lake Macquarie City's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.5%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 27.68, while in reality, it should be 16.99.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.11
14.95
27.68
Our calculation
1.14
14.95
16.99
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
27.68
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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