For Doncaster Rovers, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Doncaster Rovers conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
21 Swindon Town
2:1
+51
12/10
Home
35 Crewe Alexandra
1:1
+32
05/10
Away
30 Grimsby Town
3:0
+185
01/10
Home
33 Barrow
1:0
+43
28/09
Home
34 Chesterfield
0:3
+2
21/09
Away
28 Milton Keynes Dons
1:1
+31
12/09
Away
26 Harrogate Town
0:2
+3
07/09
Home
34 Gillingham
1:0
+37
Similarly, for Bromley, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
26 Tranmere Rovers
1:2
+19
05/10
Away
35 Fleetwood Town
0:0
+41
01/10
Home
34 Chesterfield
2:2
+30
28/09
Home
28 Milton Keynes Dons
1:1
+25
21/09
Away
30 Grimsby Town
0:1
+27
14/09
Home
40 Notts County
2:4
+5
07/09
Away
23 Colchester United
1:1
+21
31/08
Home
35 Crewe Alexandra
1:2
+21
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 385 points to the home team and 188 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Doncaster Rovers) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.12% of victories for the team Doncaster Rovers occurred in home matches. For the team Bromley this indicator is 52.63%. On average, this equates to 57.38%, suggesting a slight advantage for Doncaster Rovers all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Doncaster Rovers
Doncaster Rovers 62.12%
Bromley
Bromley 52.63%
Average
Average 57.38%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.38% of the home team's points and 42.62% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Doncaster Rovers with an advantage of 221 points against 80. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 73.34% to 26.66%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 22.52% with a coefficient of 4.44. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.67, and for the away team's victory it is 5.72. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 77.42%, and the away team's victory - 22.58%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Bromley's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.81%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.72, while in reality, it should be 4.84.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.67
4.44
5.72
Our calculation
1.76
4.44
4.84
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
5.72
2024 October
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Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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