For Crawley Town, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Crawley Town conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
35 Reading
1:4
+4
12/10
Home
16 Shrewsbury Town
3:5
+2
05/10
Away
41 Wycombe Wanderers
0:1
+36
01/10
Home
42 Mansfield Town
0:2
+6
28/09
Home
37 Bolton Wanderers
0:2
+5
21/09
Away
45 Wrexham
1:2
+41
14/09
Home
38 Stockport County
1:1
+31
31/08
Home
34 Barnsley
0:3
+2
Similarly, for Lincoln City, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
52 Birmingham City
1:3
+8
05/10
Home
17 Leyton Orient
2:1
+33
01/10
Away
30 Blackpool
1:1
+33
28/09
Away
10 Cambridge United
2:0
+31
21/09
Home
27 Wigan Athletic
0:0
+24
14/09
Away
27 Peterborough United
1:1
+24
31/08
Away
32 Stevenage
1:0
+51
24/08
Home
42 Mansfield Town
4:1
+170
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 126 points to the home team and 374 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Crawley Town) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 52.94% of victories for the team Crawley Town occurred in home matches. For the team Lincoln City this indicator is 42.37%. On average, this equates to 47.66%, suggesting a slight advantage for Crawley Town all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Crawley Town
Crawley Town 52.94%
Lincoln City
Lincoln City 42.37%
Average
Average 47.66%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 47.66% of the home team's points and 52.34% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Lincoln City with an advantage of 196 points against 60. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 76.55% to 23.45%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.46% with a coefficient of 3.78. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.67, and for the away team's victory it is 2.16. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 37.07%, and the away team's victory - 62.93%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Lincoln City's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 13.24%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.16, while in reality, it should be 1.78.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.67
3.78
2.16
Our calculation
5.8
3.78
1.78
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
2.16
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
England. League 1
QUANTITY 744
ROI +8.22%
EARNINGS +$6114
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
2024 © betzax.com