For Costa del Este, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Costa del Este conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
09/09
Home
11 Herrera
2:2
+10
02/09
Away
29 UMECIT
0:2
+5
27/08
Home
30 Deportivo Universitario
1:0
+46
18/08
Away
40 Plaza Amador
0:1
+33
12/08
Home
41 Arabe Unido
0:2
+5
05/08
Away
34 Alianza de Panama
0:0
+32
29/07
Home
35 Sporting San Miguelito
1:1
+26
20/07
Away
29 Tauro
0:0
+24
Similarly, for Independiente, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
09/09
Away
34 Alianza de Panama
0:1
+36
03/09
Home
35 Sporting San Miguelito
0:0
+27
25/08
Away
40 Plaza Amador
2:2
+49
18/08
Away
19 Veraguas
2:0
+68
11/08
Home
30 Deportivo Universitario
1:0
+39
05/08
Away
29 UMECIT
0:0
+30
27/07
Away
16 San Francisco
2:1
+26
23/07
Home
11 Herrera
1:0
+11
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 182 points to the home team and 287 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Costa del Este) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 51.67% of victories for the team Costa del Este occurred in home matches. For the team Independiente this indicator is 66.1%. On average, this equates to 58.89%, suggesting a slight advantage for Costa del Este all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Costa del Este
Costa del Este 51.67%
Independiente
Independiente 66.1%
Average
Average 58.89%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.89% of the home team's points and 41.12% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Independiente with an advantage of 118 points against 107. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.41% to 47.59%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.33% with a coefficient of 3.41. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4, and for the away team's victory it is 2.19. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 35.36%, and the away team's victory - 64.64%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Costa del Este's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.86%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4, while in reality, it should be 2.97.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4
3.41
2.19
Our calculation
2.97
3.41
2.7
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
4
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 651
ROI +4.79%
EARNINGS +$3118
Panama. LPF
QUANTITY 78
ROI +14.44%
EARNINGS +$1126
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