For Cooks Hill United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Cooks Hill United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
13/07
Away
5 Lake Macquarie City
7:2
+28
06/07
Home
11 Adamstown Rosebud
6:0
+66
29/06
Away
16 New Lambton
1:0
+25
22/06
Away
28 Valentine Phoenix
1:1
+26
16/06
Away
39 Charlestown Azzurri
4:1
+167
12/06
Home
16 New Lambton
1:2
+13
07/06
Home
5 Lake Macquarie City
4:1
+21
31/05
Away
56 Broadmeadow Magic
2:5
+4
Similarly, for Maitland, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
13/07
Home
56 Broadmeadow Magic
1:4
+5
06/07
Away
5 Lake Macquarie City
4:2
+15
29/06
Away
54 Lambton Jaffas
1:2
+40
22/06
Away
11 Adamstown Rosebud
7:2
+50
19/06
Away
45 Edgeworth Eagles
4:2
+117
15/06
Home
38 Newcastle Olympic
1:2
+30
04/06
Away
56 Broadmeadow Magic
0:2
+7
29/05
Home
39 Charlestown Azzurri
2:2
+36
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 351 points to the home team and 299 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Cooks Hill United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 44.78% of victories for the team Cooks Hill United occurred in home matches. For the team Maitland this indicator is 41.18%. On average, this equates to 42.98%, suggesting a slight advantage for Cooks Hill United all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Cooks Hill United
Cooks Hill United 44.78%
Maitland
Maitland 41.18%
Average
Average 42.98%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 42.98% of the home team's points and 57.02% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Maitland with an advantage of 171 points against 151. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 53.1% to 46.9%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.31% with a coefficient of 4.29. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.15, and for the away team's victory it is 3.32. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 60.73%, and the away team's victory - 39.27%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Maitland's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.74%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.32, while in reality, it should be 2.46.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.15
4.29
3.32
Our calculation
2.78
4.29
2.46
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.32
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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