For Comunicaciones Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Comunicaciones Reserves conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
16/10
Away
19 Fenix Reserves
1:2
+21
02/10
Home
17 Sportivo Italiano Reserves
1:0
+26
24/09
Away
33 Los Andes Reserves
0:1
+33
18/09
Home
47 Deportivo UAI Urquiza Reserves
0:0
+36
12/09
Away
32 Argentino de Quilmes Reserves
1:1
+35
20/08
Home
29 Acassuso Reserves
1:1
+19
07/08
Home
47 Deportivo UAI Urquiza Reserves
1:5
+1
30/07
Away
42 Colegiales Reserves
0:0
+44
Similarly, for Villa San Carlos Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
17/10
Home
17 Sportivo Italiano Reserves
2:0
+45
08/10
Away
33 Los Andes Reserves
1:3
+6
03/10
Home
47 Deportivo UAI Urquiza Reserves
2:2
+38
26/09
Away
32 Argentino de Quilmes Reserves
0:2
+5
19/09
Home
51 Flandria Reserves
0:1
+31
12/09
Away
22 Sacachispas Reserves
1:2
+19
27/08
Home
36 Dock Sud Reserves
1:2
+19
14/08
Away
51 Flandria Reserves
1:1
+51
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 215 points to the home team and 214 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Comunicaciones Reserves) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.82% of victories for the team Comunicaciones Reserves occurred in home matches. For the team Villa San Carlos Reserves this indicator is 63.24%. On average, this equates to 62.53%, suggesting a slight advantage for Comunicaciones Reserves all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Comunicaciones Reserves
Comunicaciones Reserves 61.82%
Villa San Carlos Reserves
Villa San Carlos Reserves 63.24%
Average
Average 62.53%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 62.53% of the home team's points and 37.47% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Comunicaciones Reserves with an advantage of 135 points against 80. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 62.7% to 37.3%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.75% with a coefficient of 4.04. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.98, and for the away team's victory it is 4.06. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 67.28%, and the away team's victory - 32.72%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Villa San Carlos Reserves's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.34%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.06, while in reality, it should be 3.56.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.98
4.04
4.06
Our calculation
2.12
4.04
3.56
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.06
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
2024 September
QUANTITY 1553
ROI +1.18%
EARNINGS +$1831
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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