For Colorado Springs Switchbacks, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Colorado Springs Switchbacks conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
47 Louisville City
1:2
+57
14/07
Away
30 Birmingham Legion
1:2
+32
05/07
Home
26 Tulsa Roughnecks
1:0
+31
30/06
Home
28 Monterey Bay
1:0
+33
23/06
Away
41 New Mexico United
0:1
+42
19/06
Away
29 Las Vegas Lights
3:3
+32
16/06
Home
29 Orange County SC
4:2
+52
09/06
Away
31 Memphis 901
1:1
+29
Similarly, for Las Vegas Lights, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
13/07
Away
14 El Paso Locomotive
2:0
+44
04/07
Away
36 Sacramento Republic
1:0
+77
30/06
Home
24 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2:0
+62
23/06
Home
31 Memphis 901
1:1
+29
19/06
Home
31 Colorado Springs Switchbacks
3:3
+23
15/06
Away
31 Loudoun United
1:1
+33
09/06
Home
9 Miami FC
3:1
+24
02/06
Home
27 Phoenix Rising
0:0
+19
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 309 points to the home team and 310 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Colorado Springs Switchbacks) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 71.21% of victories for the team Colorado Springs Switchbacks occurred in home matches. For the team Las Vegas Lights this indicator is 50.88%. On average, this equates to 61.05%, suggesting a slight advantage for Colorado Springs Switchbacks all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Colorado Springs Switchbacks
Colorado Springs Switchbacks 71.21%
Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights 50.88%
Average
Average 61.05%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.05% of the home team's points and 38.96% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Colorado Springs Switchbacks with an advantage of 189 points against 121. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 60.92% to 39.08%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.51% with a coefficient of 4.08. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.96, and for the away team's victory it is 4.07. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 67.45%, and the away team's victory - 32.55%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Las Vegas Lights's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.22%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.07, while in reality, it should be 3.39.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.96
4.08
4.07
Our calculation
2.17
4.08
3.39
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
4.07
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
USA. MLS
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