For Clarence Zebras, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Clarence Zebras conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
13/07
Home
22 Riverside Olympic
1:2
+19
05/07
Away
51 Glenorchy Knights
2:5
+5
29/06
Home
30 Launceston City
1:1
+31
22/06
Away
1 Launceston United
3:1
+2
15/06
Away
42 Kingborough Lions
3:4
+32
01/06
Home
45 South Hobart
0:1
+34
25/05
Home
42 Devonport City Strikers
0:4
+2
11/05
Away
22 Riverside Olympic
2:1
+33
Similarly, for Devonport City Strikers, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
13/07
Away
51 Glenorchy Knights
0:4
+3
06/07
Home
42 Kingborough Lions
1:2
+39
30/06
Away
45 South Hobart
2:2
+44
22/06
Home
22 Riverside Olympic
2:0
+65
15/06
Home
30 Launceston City
4:1
+138
01/06
Away
1 Launceston United
6:1
+3
25/05
Away
16 Clarence Zebras
4:0
+67
11/05
Home
51 Glenorchy Knights
1:1
+42
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 158 points to the home team and 401 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Clarence Zebras) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 47.95% of victories for the team Clarence Zebras occurred in home matches. For the team Devonport City Strikers this indicator is 43.66%. On average, this equates to 45.8%, suggesting a slight advantage for Clarence Zebras all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Clarence Zebras
Clarence Zebras 47.95%
Devonport City Strikers
Devonport City Strikers 43.66%
Average
Average 45.8%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 45.8% of the home team's points and 54.2% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Devonport City Strikers with an advantage of 217 points against 72. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 75.08% to 24.92%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 12.56% with a coefficient of 7.96. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 12.99, and for the away team's victory it is 1.25. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 8.8%, and the away team's victory - 91.2%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Clarence Zebras's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 13.9%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 12.99, while in reality, it should be 4.59.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
12.99
7.96
1.25
Our calculation
4.59
7.96
1.52
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
12.99
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
USA. MLS
2024 © betzax.com