For Chorley, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Chorley conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
39 Alfreton Town
0:1
+42
12/10
Home
24 Needham Market
1:0
+38
05/10
Home
23 Warrington Town
1:1
+22
21/09
Away
28 South Shields
3:3
+33
07/09
Home
34 Kidderminster Harriers
2:1
+47
03/09
Away
28 Brackley Town
2:0
+87
31/08
Away
21 Oxford City
2:2
+22
26/08
Home
32 Southport
4:1
+107
Similarly, for Darlington, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Away
20 Rushall Olympic
1:1
+27
05/10
Away
38 King's Lynn Town
1:2
+35
21/09
Home
32 Southport
3:0
+137
07/09
Away
17 Marine
0:0
+20
03/09
Home
39 Alfreton Town
0:0
+31
31/08
Home
33 Spennymoor Town
1:0
+40
26/08
Away
38 Curzon Ashton
0:0
+33
24/08
Home
32 Leamington
1:0
+35
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 398 points to the home team and 358 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Chorley) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.5% of victories for the team Chorley occurred in home matches. For the team Darlington this indicator is 58.62%. On average, this equates to 60.56%, suggesting a slight advantage for Chorley all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Chorley
Chorley 62.5%
Darlington
Darlington 58.62%
Average
Average 60.56%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.56% of the home team's points and 39.44% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Chorley with an advantage of 241 points against 141. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.09% to 36.91%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.67% with a coefficient of 3.75. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.95, and for the away team's victory it is 4.52. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 69.87%, and the away team's victory - 30.14%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Darlington's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.78%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.52, while in reality, it should be 3.69.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.95
3.75
4.52
Our calculation
2.16
3.75
3.69
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
4.52
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