For Chesterfield, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Chesterfield conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
18/10
Away
27 Newport County
3:0
+174
12/10
Home
40 Notts County
2:2
+40
05/10
Home
43 Walsall
2:2
+35
01/10
Away
21 Bromley
2:2
+24
28/09
Away
40 Doncaster Rovers
3:0
+226
21/09
Home
22 Cheltenham Town
1:1
+17
14/09
Away
42 Port Vale
0:1
+34
07/09
Home
30 Grimsby Town
2:1
+31
Similarly, for Colchester United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
22 Cheltenham Town
1:2
+19
05/10
Home
15 Carlisle United
0:0
+16
01/10
Away
42 Port Vale
1:1
+48
28/09
Away
43 Walsall
0:4
+2
21/09
Home
26 Tranmere Rovers
3:0
+95
14/09
Away
13 Morecambe
3:3
+13
07/09
Home
21 Bromley
1:1
+17
31/08
Away
23 Accrington Stanley
1:1
+20
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 580 points to the home team and 229 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Chesterfield) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 59.7% of victories for the team Chesterfield occurred in home matches. For the team Colchester United this indicator is 54.55%. On average, this equates to 57.12%, suggesting a slight advantage for Chesterfield all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Chesterfield
Chesterfield 59.7%
Colchester United
Colchester United 54.55%
Average
Average 57.12%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.12% of the home team's points and 42.88% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Chesterfield with an advantage of 331 points against 98. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 77.1% to 22.9%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.51% with a coefficient of 3.92. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2, and for the away team's victory it is 4.09. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 67.14%, and the away team's victory - 32.87%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Chesterfield's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.73%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2, while in reality, it should be 1.74.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2
3.92
4.09
Our calculation
1.74
3.92
5.86
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
2024 September
QUANTITY 1553
ROI +1.18%
EARNINGS +$1831
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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