For Chester, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Chester conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
44 Scunthorpe United
0:0
+43
05/10
Home
22 Farsley Celtic
0:0
+22
21/09
Away
20 Rushall Olympic
2:1
+40
07/09
Home
28 South Shields
1:0
+43
03/09
Away
34 Kidderminster Harriers
1:1
+34
31/08
Home
27 Peterborough Sports
3:0
+121
26/08
Home
31 Scarborough Athletic
3:2
+42
24/08
Away
39 Alfreton Town
2:2
+34
Similarly, for Buxton, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Away
38 King's Lynn Town
0:2
+6
12/10
Home
38 Hereford
1:2
+28
05/10
Home
38 Curzon Ashton
0:1
+33
07/09
Home
20 Rushall Olympic
2:0
+48
03/09
Away
28 South Shields
0:1
+24
31/08
Away
32 Southport
2:3
+25
26/08
Home
17 Marine
1:2
+11
24/08
Away
27 Peterborough Sports
0:1
+18
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 379 points to the home team and 192 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Chester) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.36% of victories for the team Chester occurred in home matches. For the team Buxton this indicator is 57.81%. On average, this equates to 57.09%, suggesting a slight advantage for Chester all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Chester
Chester 56.36%
Buxton
Buxton 57.81%
Average
Average 57.09%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.09% of the home team's points and 42.91% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Chester with an advantage of 216 points against 82. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.38% to 27.62%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.39% with a coefficient of 4.1. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.71, and for the away team's victory it is 5.83. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 77.31%, and the away team's victory - 22.69%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Buxton's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.65%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.83, while in reality, it should be 4.79.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.71
4.1
5.83
Our calculation
1.83
4.1
4.79
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
5.83
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