For Central Coast Mariners U-21, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Central Coast Mariners U-21 conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Home
41 Blacktown City
1:1
+41
13/07
Away
38 Sydney Olympic
2:1
+75
10/07
Home
43 APIA Tigers
3:2
+62
07/07
Home
47 Marconi Stallions
0:1
+33
29/06
Home
25 Spirit
3:0
+86
21/06
Away
24 Manly United
0:2
+4
16/06
Home
17 Sydney FC U-21
1:1
+11
12/06
Away
30 Western Sydney Wanderers U-21
5:3
+81
Similarly, for St George City FA, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
30 Western Sydney Wanderers U-21
5:0
+170
13/07
Away
47 Marconi Stallions
1:2
+41
06/07
Home
17 Sydney FC U-21
1:2
+12
29/06
Away
41 Blacktown City
2:1
+73
22/06
Home
25 Spirit
3:4
+17
15/06
Away
20 St George Saints
2:0
+59
12/06
Away
43 APIA Tigers
1:4
+3
08/06
Home
32 Wollongong Wolves
0:2
+3
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 392 points to the home team and 378 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Central Coast Mariners U-21) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 57.14% of victories for the team Central Coast Mariners U-21 occurred in home matches. For the team St George City FA this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 53.57%, suggesting a slight advantage for Central Coast Mariners U-21 all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Central Coast Mariners U-21
Central Coast Mariners U-21 57.14%
St George City FA
St George City FA 50%
Average
Average 53.57%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.57% of the home team's points and 46.43% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Central Coast Mariners U-21 with an advantage of 210 points against 176. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.43% to 45.57%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.79% with a coefficient of 4.59. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.86, and for the away team's victory it is 1.74. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 26.3%, and the away team's victory - 73.7%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Central Coast Mariners U-21's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 22.49%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.86, while in reality, it should be 2.35.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4.86
4.59
1.74
Our calculation
2.35
4.59
2.81
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
4.86
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Australia. National Premier League. New South Wales
QUANTITY 172
ROI +45.74%
EARNINGS +$7867
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