For Burton Albion, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Burton Albion conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
37 Bolton Wanderers
1:2
+34
05/10
Home
25 Bristol Rovers
1:3
+4
01/10
Away
35 Reading
1:3
+6
28/09
Away
30 Blackpool
0:3
+3
21/09
Home
34 Barnsley
1:2
+26
14/09
Away
24 Rotherham United
2:2
+27
31/08
Away
23 Northampton Town
0:0
+22
24/08
Home
32 Stevenage
0:0
+23
Similarly, for Wycombe Wanderers, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
27 Peterborough United
3:1
+79
05/10
Home
14 Crawley Town
1:0
+24
01/10
Away
34 Barnsley
2:2
+33
28/09
Away
25 Bristol Rovers
2:1
+44
21/09
Home
10 Cambridge United
2:1
+13
14/09
Away
23 Northampton Town
2:1
+38
31/08
Away
30 Blackpool
2:2
+28
24/08
Home
24 Rotherham United
2:0
+48
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 145 points to the home team and 308 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Burton Albion) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50.85% of victories for the team Burton Albion occurred in home matches. For the team Wycombe Wanderers this indicator is 51.61%. On average, this equates to 51.23%, suggesting a slight advantage for Burton Albion all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Burton Albion
Burton Albion 50.85%
Wycombe Wanderers
Wycombe Wanderers 51.61%
Average
Average 51.23%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 51.23% of the home team's points and 48.77% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Wycombe Wanderers with an advantage of 150 points against 74. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 66.84% to 33.16%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.94% with a coefficient of 4.01. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.1, and for the away team's victory it is 1.97. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 32.52%, and the away team's victory - 67.48%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Burton Albion's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 0.64%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.1, while in reality, it should be 4.02.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4.1
4.01
1.97
Our calculation
4.02
4.01
1.99
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
4.1
2024 October
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