For Bristol Rovers, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Bristol Rovers conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
36 Huddersfield Town
1:3
+6
05/10
Away
10 Burton Albion
3:1
+31
01/10
Home
32 Charlton Athletic
3:2
+52
28/09
Home
41 Wycombe Wanderers
1:2
+32
21/09
Away
27 Peterborough United
2:3
+21
14/09
Home
27 Wigan Athletic
0:4
+1
07/09
Away
34 Barnsley
1:2
+23
31/08
Home
10 Cambridge United
2:0
+20
Similarly, for Shrewsbury Town, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
17/10
Home
40 Exeter City
0:2
+6
12/10
Away
14 Crawley Town
5:3
+45
05/10
Away
37 Bolton Wanderers
2:2
+41
01/10
Home
38 Stockport County
0:2
+5
28/09
Home
24 Rotherham United
1:1
+18
21/09
Away
42 Mansfield Town
1:2
+32
14/09
Home
32 Charlton Athletic
0:1
+19
07/09
Away
45 Wrexham
0:3
+4
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 187 points to the home team and 170 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Bristol Rovers) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 51.47% of victories for the team Bristol Rovers occurred in home matches. For the team Shrewsbury Town this indicator is 52.38%. On average, this equates to 51.93%, suggesting a slight advantage for Bristol Rovers all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers 51.47%
Shrewsbury Town
Shrewsbury Town 52.38%
Average
Average 51.93%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 51.93% of the home team's points and 48.07% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Bristol Rovers with an advantage of 97 points against 82. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.29% to 45.71%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.91% with a coefficient of 3.86. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.18, and for the away team's victory it is 3.54. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 61.91%, and the away team's victory - 38.1%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Shrewsbury Town's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.62%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.54, while in reality, it should be 2.95.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.18
3.86
3.54
Our calculation
2.49
3.86
2.95
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.54
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