For Bath City, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Bath City conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
23 Hornchurch
0:0
+29
05/10
Away
29 Chesham United
1:0
+61
21/09
Home
14 Enfield Town
0:1
+10
07/09
Away
30 Chelmsford City
0:3
+3
03/09
Home
43 Truro City
1:0
+60
31/08
Away
36 Hemel Hempstead Town
2:4
+5
26/08
Home
22 Hampton & Richmond Borough
1:0
+26
24/08
Away
33 Tonbridge Angels
0:0
+29
Similarly, for Weymouth, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
29 Chesham United
1:1
+29
05/10
Away
14 Enfield Town
0:1
+14
21/09
Home
35 Worthing
1:1
+35
07/09
Away
33 Dorking Wanderers
2:1
+64
03/09
Home
22 Hampton & Richmond Borough
0:1
+13
31/08
Away
39 Slough Town
0:1
+35
26/08
Home
37 Eastbourne Borough
0:1
+22
24/08
Away
37 Boreham Wood
0:3
+3
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 223 points to the home team and 215 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Bath City) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 58.73% of victories for the team Bath City occurred in home matches. For the team Weymouth this indicator is 53.57%. On average, this equates to 56.15%, suggesting a slight advantage for Bath City all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Bath City
Bath City 58.73%
Weymouth
Weymouth 53.57%
Average
Average 56.15%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.15% of the home team's points and 43.85% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Bath City with an advantage of 125 points against 94. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 57.04% to 42.96%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.7% with a coefficient of 3.61. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.12, and for the away team's victory it is 3.98. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 65.25%, and the away team's victory - 34.75%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Weymouth's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.34%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.98, while in reality, it should be 3.22.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.12
3.61
3.98
Our calculation
2.42
3.61
3.22
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.98
2024 October
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